The world had better hope that Israel wins its wars against Hamasbetkubi online casino, Hezbollah, the Houthis and their masters in Tehran. By “wins,” I mean that Israel inflicts such costs on its enemies’ capacity to wage war that they accept that their interests, irrespective of their desires, are no longer served by fighting.

Those who hope for an independent, free and peaceful Palestinian state had better hope Israel wins.

An Israel that allows Hamas to remain in power in Gaza is never going to give up the West Bank for the sake of Palestinian sovereignty, lest Hamas take over there, too, and replicate its strategy of rockets and tunnels on a grander scale. Hamas’s leader, Yahya Sinwar, or his heirs would continue their well-documented reign of Stasi-like surveillance over those they rule, not least by brutalizing Palestinians who dare to oppose them. And the feeble but authoritarian Palestinian Authority would remain unreformable if Hamas, rather than more moderate Palestinian groups, remains its principal political competition.

Those who hope for an independent, free and peaceful Lebanese state had better hope Israel wins.

Hezbollah likes to present itself as a Lebanese resistance force. In reality, it’s an Iranian occupation force. It has repeatedly, and often violently, imposed its will on the country’s elected leadership. It has been implicated in the assassination of the former prime minister Rafik Hariri. It has dragged the country into ruinous wars with Israel. It has turned Lebanese civilians into human shields by emplacing itself in dense Beirut neighborhoods. It has taken advantage of the country’s weakness to establish lucrative sidelines in drug trafficking, weapons smuggling and money laundering.

Hezbollah is disliked, if not hated, by most Lebanese. But they will never be free of its tyranny if there is nobody to destroy its ability to violently dominate the political landscape. If a world that claims to care for Lebanon’s interests doesn’t want Israel to do it, perhaps someone else should volunteer. How about the French?

Those who want a more moderate Israeli government had better hope it wins.

Imagine if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, were to agree tomorrow to a cease-fire, which Kamala Harris has said is her top priority when it comes to the conflict. Imagine (not that it’s remotely likely) that Netanyahu also announced that he was eager to hold talks leading to the creation of a Palestinian state, irrespective of whether Hamas remains a potent force in Palestinian politics. Just who among Israel’s political factions would be the chief political beneficiary of those decisions?

Answer: Not the accommodating Tel Aviv secularists, led by the former foreign minister Yair Lapid. It would be figures like Israel’s national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, and their ultraright constituents, who would accuse the government of capitulating to Western leftists at just the moment when Israel had finally turned the tide of war. Nobody should then be surprised if the next Israeli government makes the current one look dovish by comparison.

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