234win Can Kamala Harris Rebuild the Democratic Coalition?
With a little over three months until the presidential election, Kamala Harris inherited a Democratic coalition that was badly frayed.
In polls this year, young, Black and Hispanic voters abandoned President Biden in droves. Even swing voters began to reconsider the Trump presidency in a new and more positive light. And for the first time in years, more Americans said they leaned Republican than Democratic.
To win, Vice President Harris will need to stitch a winning Democratic coalition back together. It won’t be easy. She’ll need to rejuvenate support among young, Black and Hispanic voters, even as she reassures the anti-Trump moderates who put Democrats over the top in 2020.
While it’s still early, the first polls since Ms. Harris all but locked up the nomination suggest she has already made some progress. But while she’s running ahead of where Mr. Biden stood when he left the race, she’s still short of hitting traditional Democratic benchmarks. To win the Electoral College, she’ll need additional gains in the months ahead.
Advertisement
SKIP ADVERTISEMENTYoung, Black and Hispanic votersDemocrats have long assumed overwhelming support from young, Black and Hispanic voters. For many Democratic strategists, the only question was whether these voters would vote, not whether they would prefer Democrats if they did.
More on the 2024 ElectionRepublicans Keep Talking About Abortion: In a campaign they would like to center on the economy and the border, Republican candidates keep drifting back to abortion rights, an issue that favors Democrats.
Harris’s Economic Plan: A central question in the final stretch of the election is if Kamala Harris’s proposals will cohere into an economic argument that can top Donald Trump’s.
Vance’s Relationship With his Mother: In his 2016 memoir, JD Vance described a rough childhood due to his mother’s devastating drug addiction. Today, the two are a remarkable team.
In polls this year, though, Mr. Biden was struggling badly with voters whom Democrats usually take for granted. It was enough to give Donald J. Trump the lead in national and battleground state polls. And it raised questions about why, exactly, Mr. Biden was so weak.
Biden’s Loss of Support From 2020, by Voting Groups
2024 POLLING
SHIFT FROM 2020
Age
18 to 29
Biden +9
+10R
54-46
30 to 44
+6R
Trump +2
51-49
45 to 64
+5R
Trump +16
58-42
65 and older
+3D
Biden +7
53-47
Race
Black
+11R
Biden +62
81-19
Hispanic
+9R
Biden +8
54-46
Other
+2R
Biden +13
57-43
White
+1R
Trump +14
57-43
Race by
education
Nonwhite, no college
+10R
Biden +23
62-38
Nonwhite, college
+7R
Biden +37
68-32
White, no college
+2R
Trump +37
69-31
White, college
No change
Biden +16
58-42
Sex
Female
+3R
Biden +9
54-46
Male
+3R
Trump +14
57-43
SHIFT
FROM 2020
Age
2024 POLLING
18 to 29
Biden +9
+10R
54-46
30 to 44
+6R
Trump +2
51-49
45 to 64
+5R
Trump +16
58-42
65 and older
+3D
Biden +7
53-47
SHIFT
FROM 2020
Race
2024 POLLING
Black
+11R
Biden +62
81-19
Hispanic
+9R
Biden +8
54-46
Other
+2R
Biden +13
57-43
White
+1R
Trump +14
57-43
SHIFT
FROM 2020
Race by education
2024 POLLING
Nonwhite, no college
+10R
Biden +23
62-38
Nonwhite, college
+7R
Biden +37
68-32
White, no college
+2R
Trump +37
69-31
White, college
No change
Biden +16
58-42
SHIFT
FROM 2020
Sex
2024 POLLING
Female
+3R
Biden +9
54-46
Male
+3R
Trump +14
57-43
Figures are based on two-party vote shares.
By The New York Times
Subscribe to The Times to read as many articles as you like.234win